Policy Context
No single housing market operates in North Staffordshire. Indeed the evidence suggests that there are a number of markets that are interlinked and that operate at different spatial scales. So for example, when observing the pattern and scale of house moves within the sub region, it is possible to identify a series of micro-markets with a high degree of self-containment. It is within this context that RENEW has developed its programme and its policy interventions.
These policies have been set within a rapidly changing Public Policy Framework. Nationally, the Government’s Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) - the process that allocates public finance - has almost been completed. This exercise will direct public sector expenditure to 2011 and beyond. The Government is using this CSR to recast priorities and fundamentally review some areas of activity. Where fundamental reviews have taken place, the Treasury is producing publicly available reports.
Housing markets
The key trends and developments in the market has been summarised below:
- There has been a recent increase in the demand for housing. Since 2003-04 the trend has been for net inward migration into Stoke-on-Trent, the main sub regional driver for North Staffordshire. There would appear to be around 2,400 more households in Stoke-on-Trent than predicted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
- Despite this increase in households, vacancy rates remain virtually unchanged. The rate of vacancy in the central urban core remains among the highest in the country
- The evidence suggests that the urban core is gaining young single people, but is continuing to lose families through outward migration
- Demand for housing in the inner urban core appears to be highly localised and there are a number of identifiable micro-markets
- Despite recent changes in demand, North Staffordshire still has the lowest property prices within the West Midlands region. The increase in Buy to Let activity and recent inward migration have led to a recovery of prices for lower value properties, so that in relative terms they have regained their 2000 position in relation to neighbouring local authorities. More expensive properties (the median sales price) have fared significantly better, and have regained their 1998 position in relative terms
- With these increases in prices have come increases in problems relating to affordability for emerging households. Between 2003 and 2006, average incomes in Stoke-on-Trent increased by 22%. But average house prices increased by 90% and terraced houses by 143%. Despite these increases pockets of low prices remain, often in areas with structural and stock condition problems
- The impact of the current ‘credit crunch’ has seen the markets in North Staffordshire effectively stall, with much of the increase in house prices being effectively lost - although in relative terms within the region, the position has not substantially altered
The changing national agenda
The Government is about to publish the CSR 2007, which will set public expenditure priorities to 2011.
In recent months, these priorities have started to become clearer as a series of policy documents have been published. Documents include the Treasury’s Sub-national economic development and regeneration review and the Housing Green Paper Homes for the future: more affordable, more sustainable.
These policy papers highlight the following:
- the primacy of economic competitiveness when allocating regeneration resources
- the objective of investing in fewer areas where market failure is more severe
- the transformation of estates and disadvantaged neighbourhoods will remain a priority, with local authorities leading the process and monitoring taking place through the Local Government Performance Framework.
- the growing importance of increasing housing supply and addressing issues of affordability and access
The implications for North Staffordshire
The research indicates that North Staffordshire is currently experiencing rapid social and economic change – change which is producing different impacts and issues in different parts of the sub region.
In addition, the national Public Policy Framework is subject to a radical review. The combination of these two factors will have major implications for strategies to regenerate North Staffordshire. The issues for its housing strategy are as follows:
- Housing market renewal: This will need to be completed to address housing conditions and surpluses in the inner urban core and to tackle the continuing outflow of families.
- Transformation of estates: Many of the peripheral estates have problems of multiple deprivation, worklessness, poor environments, low asset values and problems of affordability. These areas will need a multi-faceted approach if their trajectory is to be reversed
- Economy and competitiveness: In line with the Treasury’s thinking, the Housing Strategy will need to engage more explicitly with this agenda
- Affordability: A balance needs to be obtained between restructuring the local market to retain families and aspirational households, and ensuring that housing remains affordable for the largest possible number of residents. Given the existence of different micro-markets, affordable housing may be a more important component of local strategies in different parts of the sub region
- Cohesion: Within urban areas such as Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle under Lyme, which are undergoing rapid social, economic and physical change, public policy will explicitly need to address issues of cohesion
